20050831 Turtle soup+1 short triggered, but not much down momentum, still in play. Today show ID pattern, indicates possibilit of breakout either side, so stop tightened to high of today. If break on downside, can consider adding to short position. Some news today on the possible release of SPR (Strategic Petroleum Reserve) to mitigate the economic effects of hurricane Katrina. Could be now the people trading the crude realise that they cannot put cude oil in their cars, so the price of gasoline shuld be the one going up not crude oil?

Crude Oil futures chart

20050829 Candlestick indicates buying interest, closing near the high. Expect more strength, at least at the open the next day. 

Crude Oil futures chart

20050829 A second consecutive bearish candlestick, but the chart looks like it is going to take off like a rocket. In classical technical analysis, it is akin to a blow off top. 100% of traders and analysts say US75 above easy soon for oil price, and what does the market do? The bears slam down the buls today. All the talk is about the hurricane Katrina (now a mere thunderstorm) disrupting supplies. Yes the storm can affect the oil rigs, but all the refineries in Louisiana and Forida suspend production. Didn't anyone think tht if the refineries were closed, the barrels of oil from other parts of the world nrmally refined there stack up. Supply > demand, so when the storm blows over (it won't last 2 weeks) the oil price could plunge. This is irrational exuberance, which the long speculators could end up with many lifetime supplies of oil in their backyard.. 

Crude Oil futures chart

20050826 A down candle showing selling interest, probably profit taking ahead of the weekend amidst news of the hurricane could possibly develop. This comes after 3 days of gains. Look back at the chart and you will see this (and other commodity markets) exhibit a trait of 3 to 4 days move will inevitably be followed by a counter day move in the opposite direction. 

Crude Oil futures chart

20050825 New 20 day high. If the price can stay below 68, would look to sell a break below 67.38 with a stop just above the high today for a turtle soup +1 short trade. 

Crude Oil futures chart

20050824 Uptrend continues with ZLR. 

Crude Oil futures chart

20050823 Weakness early on, but buyers came out to push prices higher, could signal continuation of upward movement. CCI stilll positive exhibiting the ZLR (zero line reject) buy signal. 

Crude Oil futures chart

20050822 Momentum still up, but CCI hook down with a doji candlestick. If price breaks the low of this doji bar, a sell is indicated targeting the lower moving averages. 

Crude Oil futures chart

20050819 Closed above moving average and the CCI failed to cross the zero. Not quite to the symmetry support level of 61.00 for the lng entry. 

Crude Oil futures chart

20050818 

Crude Oil futures chart

20050817 Big seling candlestick, must be a lot of long liquidation, especially from those dog piled into the crude oil for the 'long of the century'. 99% of experts predicted US75 to 80 per barrel last week. Yes it may come, but not so soon. With the high US67.10 last Friday, a good point of entry of long position might be around US61.j00, the symmetry support level. 

Crude Oil futures chart

20050816 An Inside Day today, setting up for breakout either side. 

Crude Oil futures chart

20050815 Failed test of the high of 61.10 made last Friday. Some selling in the candlestick, but buyers still trying to push the closing up to beyond the 50% of the range, indicating they still have some strength. My feeling is for a few more days of selling down to 61.00 for symmetry support. 

Crude Oil futures chart

20050815 6:38am ET. It seems the Brent Crude Oil (sour crude) has narrowed the discount to the Nymex Light Sweet Crude. 

Crude Oil futures chart

20050812 2nd day of gains after a big white candlestick two days ago. Momentum strong taking out a new high. Witht the last significant retracement of US6 In July, we can project symmetry support to come in US6 from any new high made, which on today's new high would come in around US61. 

Crude Oil futures chart

20050811 Normally after a strong buying bar, 2 or 3 das of gains would ensue. Uptrend continues with strong CCI momentum. 

Crude Oil futures chart

20050810 Another candlestick showing impulse move due to buying. Interesting to note in this upmove, there were 3 bars of profit taking, each coming after 3 or 4 days of advance. 

Crude Oil futures chart

20050809 Candlestick indicates buying interest, on Fed FOMC day. But CCI still below the zero line. 

Crude Oil futures chart

20050809 

Crude Oil futures chart

20050808 Been a while sinde the breakout on upside of the double ID (Inside Day), leading to a powerful move to these lofty levels. Can look for turtle soup type reversay, with trigger short being US62.50 per barrel, for a swing trade. 

Crude Oil futures chart

20050805 With CCI grinding around +100, today's move made the upside momentum stronger after the profit taking candlestick 2 days ago. New highs taken out means uptrend intact, unless a swing low is violated. 

Crude Oil futures chart

20050804 So it seems the selling on Aug 3 was profit taking. Could resume uptrend with CCI in nice positon grinding around +100. 

Crude Oil futures chart

20050803 New high put in place but candle shows reversal signal. Looking for more downside from here. CCI broke below +100 indicating slowing in momentum upside. 

Crude Oil futures chart

20050802 An ID (Inside Day) candle, consolidating gains. 

Crude Oil futures chart

20050801 Crude Oil reached beyond US62 per barrel. Buying interest is seen in the candlestick. 

Crude Oil futures chart